The Halladay Effect and a pitcher the Yankees actually have a chance of acquiring to improve their team
It is my overwhelming belief Roy Halladay gets traded before the trade deadline on July 31st. The Blue Jays have no prayer at finishing even in third place in the division, they have plenty of young and talented pitchers (when healthy, which five of them aren't right now), and yet a lot of their money is or has been tied up in bad contracts and either washed up or under-performing players (Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Troy Glaus). Halladay will be worth far less this time next year when he becomes a rental player, in the off-season it will get trickier to get him to waive his no-trade clause without getting an extension first (and the Blue Jays will have less leverage) and teams are most desperate this time of year when they think they will be a contender but still need one more piece to put them over the top (the Phillies, Angels and possibly Brewers and Cardinals fit under this category).
This is the most ideal and perfect time to deal the 32-year-old Halladay who will cost too much to resign longterm and has probably pitched his best years already with Toronto. It's Halladay at his highest value, period. Regardless of what anybody says, the Yankees and Red Sox will not acquire the ace right hander. They may release statements claiming they are interested, or may say they want him, and they may even have the pieces and payroll (specifically the Red Sox) to get the deal done, but ultimately the Jays won't deal him within the division and the teams don't honestly need him all that much. The Yankees could use a Wang insurance policy is they aren't comfortable with Sergio Mitre, if they need Hughes and Aceves in the bullpen and if they aren't comfortable with Joba's inconsistency as a starter, but they aren't exactly dying one game out of the east, in the wild card lead and 15 games over .500 before the All Star break. Would trading for Halladay probably cause Theo Epstein to jump out a window? Yes, and vice versa for Cashman, but it's not something mandatory for the Yankees like Sabathia was. Plus, there are too many bidders not to find a match elsewhere.
Toronto's focus is to make a trade which can potentially set it up to make the playoffs, trading Halladay to a division rival does a great deal to damper those attempts, even if the bounty is the best. The Jays will take a slightly less impressive bounty from the Phillies or Angels than they would for the Red Sox and Yankees even if it meant Buchholz, Ellsbury and a high prospect or Cano, Jackson and Montero.
So let's just eliminate the Red Sox and Yankees from discussion. In my mind the options are: the White Sox (who could use a move like this to win their division outright), the Angels (who could use this move to put them directly in the middle of World Series discussion), the Phillies (who need a two starter behind a struggling Hamels), the Cardinals (same as Phillies but with Carpenter who is not struggling in a division without a clear-cut winner), the Brewers (who need something to replace Sheets and Sabathia), the Cubs (who need help with anything past Zambrano, especially with Dempster on the DL now), the Giants (who could use a starter to add to their biggest strength in an attempt to pitch the Dodgers into submission in the West) and the Mets (who could use a big name to trick fans into watching that awful team).
Those are the only teams in my mind with any legitimate shot at Halladay. Right away we can eliminate the White Sox, Cubs and Mets because they have no farm system capable of pulling this deal off. So they're out.
The Brewers, even if they have the prospects and young talent (Prince Fielder) probably don't have the payroll regardless of how badly Ryan Braun would love Halladay, plus the Cardinals make a better fit anyway. Goodbye Milwaukee.
I say the Cardinals aren't terribly interested right now and they have to save all the money in that franchise to resign Pujols when he's a free agent. Having two 20-plus million dollar contracts (Pujols might be 30-plus million) could cripple that team financially.
That leaves us with the Giants, Phillies and Angels. The Giants are interesting because Lincecum, Halladay and Cain in the post-season probably beats an All-Star team regardless of San Francisco's offense. This move would make the Giants go from somewhere between the 4th-8th best team in the NL to the first or second. It would make the NL West the NL's answer to the AL East. The problem is the Giants faced this exact scenario in the offseason and all they had to do was add money by purchasing Manny Ramirez. They didn't bite. All of his troubles this year aside, on paper, San Fran would have been adding the bat they needed to balance that team and make them NL pennant caliber AND would have taken away the Dodgers' best hitter down the stretch. It would have been addition by addition and subtraction and they didn't do it. Now we're supposed to believe just because Halladay has a better personality they would empty the farm and give someone Bonds money to add to their only overwhelming strength to begin with? I'll believe it when I see it, no more Giants.
To me the two most obvious choices are the Phillies and Angels. Again, when was the last time you saw a major player under contract get traded within the division in the AL East? 10,20,30 years ago? Red Sox and Yankees aren't happening even if either team badly wanted it to which I don't believe they do.
The Phillies have the MLB ready talent they would need with J.A. Happ and guys like Rollins, Werth, and a bunch of players in their prime already on the team. They have a strong farm system though I don't believe it's as good as people think, regardless, it's good enough for this deal to happen. I don't know what kind of financial resources they have right now, but they did just win a World Series, but more importantly, in order to repeat they will need help. Cole Hamels has been hurt and not ace caliber all year. Their pitching is suffering from deep October hangover. They are by all accounts, only the clear-cut second or even third best team in their own league. They need SOMETHING to get them past the Dodgers and to separate them from the surging Cardinals, both of whom have the offense to compete with their own. The team has gone on record as saying they would be willing to trade for a top of the rotation pitcher, in other words, a front end guy like Halladay, in other words, they'd probably be willing to pay him. Halladay is a groundball guy who can strike out over 8.00 K/9 so Citizen's wouldn't effect him. He might have a sub 2 ERA in the NL this year. He is the perfect fit for a Phillies team so in need of pitching they have publically announced it to all who would listen.
Though I have no real reason to discount the Angels, the fact of the matter is they have Lackey, Santana, Saunders, Weaver and Palmer. It's a full rotation and a healthy one. There can be improvements, any rotation can improve, but the Angels aren't do unbelievably desperate they NEED to make it work, plus the Phillies have the added benefit of being in the NL, far away from anything the Blue Jays would need to worry about. Not to mention, unlike the Angels, the Phillies don't have someone like Kelvim Escober possibly healthy by the stretch run. The Angels could afford Halladay, they have the leftover Tex money and make the playoffs almost every year, but their need isn't nearly as strong as the Phillies. SoCal fans are for the most part content with their team competing every year, they would like a World Series but the pressure isn't nearly as high as rowdy Phillies fans with a taste of success in their mouths. My bet is Roy Halladay is visiting the Liberty Bell by August 1st and if that happens, the Dodgers won't be the only game in town any longer and we might be on our way to round two of last year's NLCS.
- On a sidenote, if the Yankees want to go after a pitcher, how about Jon Garland? The D Backs' front office has already said they would be willing to part with their players, Garland is affordable for the Yankees, he's a solid five starter in the AL and he can be had for cheap with an uninspiring 4.80 ERA in the NL West. That's mediocre for a starter and hideous for a contact pitcher. But the fact of the matter is I wanted Garland in the offseason in the event of an inevitable injury and an insurance policy to Hughes and now I still want him as a veteran arm. Garland is a former World Series winner, he knows how to win on teams with good offenses, and he would almost certainly surge with new life if he was traded to a contender. We saw it with a guy like Shawn Chacon and we'd see it again. Signing Garland can be Wang insurance, then Aceves and Hughes can stay in what has become a dominant bullpen and Wang and Mitre can be the new insurance policies in case Garland doesn't work out or Chamberlain falls apart. And let it be known, if Garland pitches like I think he would (a solid back of the rotation pitcher), he will be the fourth starter in a postseason game if Wang can't get fully healthy by the end of the year. That means a bullpen of Chamberlain, Hughes, Aceves, Coke, Rivera, Bruney, Robertson. That also means game over after six innings. With Sabathia, Burnett, a gamer and seasoned playoff pitcher like Pettitte and another one with Garland, and you're looking at a team build well enough to make the playoffs and specifically made for October baseball.







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